Following the significant setbacks experienced by the Pakistani military during India’s Operation Sindoor, the Pakistan Army has intensified its crackdown in Balochistan. This move appears to be an attempt to reassert control and divert attention from recent military embarrassments.
According to reports, Pakistani armed forces have launched extensive operations across Balochistan, leading to widespread disruptions. In several areas, internet and electricity services have been suspended, effectively isolating communities and preventing the dissemination of information about the ongoing military actions. This strategy mirrors previous instances where the military, facing challenges on other fronts, redirected its focus to Balochistan, often resulting in human rights violations.
Historically, after events like the 1999 Kargil conflict, the 2006 killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti, and the 2019 Balakot airstrikes, the Pakistani military has intensified operations in Balochistan. These actions have included enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings under the guise of counter-terrorism efforts. The current crackdown seems to follow this pattern, with reports indicating a surge in military presence and operations in the region. This was intensified by Balochistan’s declaration of independence.
On May 8, 2025, Mir Yar Baloch, a prominent Baloch leader, declared the independence of Balochistan from Pakistan, marking a significant escalation in the region’s long-standing separatist movement. This declaration, announced via social media, emphasised the Baloch people’s distinct identity and their prolonged struggle against what they describe as systemic oppression by the Pakistani state.
The situation is further complicated by the growing Baloch independence movement. Razzak Baloch, Secretary General of the Baloch American Congress, claimed that Pakistan has lost control over 70–80% of the region. He asserted that Pakistani forces are largely confined to Quetta and avoid patrolling after dark due to security concerns.
How did Balochistan Came to Pakistan?
Prior to the partition of British India in 1947, Balochistan comprised several princely states, notably the Khanate of Kalat, which enjoyed a degree of autonomy under British suzerainty. With India’s independence, on August 15, 1947, the Khan of Kalat declared independence, seeking to establish a sovereign Baloch state. But geopolitical considerations and strategic interests led to negotiations with Pakistan.
The Khan believed Kalat had a legal right to sovereignty, just like India and Pakistan, as the British had signed agreements with Kalat separately rather than treating it as part of British India.
But the decision was complicated by Pakistan’s strategic concerns and its refusal to accept Kalat’s independence. Initially, Pakistan proposed a special relationship, but pressure intensified when Kalat resisted accession. Pakistan feared that an independent Balochistan could align with hostile powers, fragment the new state’s territorial integrity, and threaten access to the Arabian Sea. Eventually, under duress and political manoeuvring, and with minimal international (mostly British) support, the Khan signed the instrument of accession in March 1948, a move widely regarded by Baloch nationalists as coerced and illegitimate.
This marked the beginning of a long-standing conflict. culminating in the controversial accession of Kalat to Pakistan in March 1948. This annexation was met with resistance from segments of the Baloch population, sowing seeds of dissent that have persisted for decades.
The Evolution of the Baloch Nationalist Movement
Since its incorporation into Pakistan, Balochistan has witnessed multiple uprisings and insurgencies, driven by perceptions of political neglect, economic exploitation, and cultural suppression. Key episodes include:
1948–1950: Prince Abdul Karim’s Uprising
Shortly after the forced accession of the Khanate of Kalat to Pakistan in March 1948, Prince Abdul Karim, the younger brother of the Khan, launched the first armed rebellion against the Pakistani state. Viewing the annexation as illegitimate, Karim sought to restore Baloch sovereignty. He fled to Afghanistan to gather support but failed to secure material assistance. Returning with a small band of fighters, he initiated guerrilla resistance in the mountainous regions of Balochistan. Though ultimately subdued by Pakistani forces, this initial uprising set the ideological foundation for Baloch nationalism and inspired future generations of resistance.
1958–1960: The Second Insurgency
The second wave of rebellion erupted following the imposition of martial law by President Ayub Khan and the arrest of the Khan of Kalat. The move was seen as a betrayal of the limited autonomy Balochistan was promised. Nawab Nauroz Khan led this revolt, demanding greater political rights and the release of the Khan. Operating from the Jhalawan region, Nauroz and his fighters engaged Pakistani troops in sporadic clashes. Eventually deceived into surrendering under false promises of amnesty, Nauroz’s sons and close aides were executed, fuelling resentment. This phase reinforced Baloch mistrust of the Pakistani state and its military establishment.
1973–1977: The Largest Armed Insurgency Until Then
The third and most extensive insurgency before the 2000s erupted under Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s government after the dismissal of the elected Balochistan government. Pakistan accused Baloch leaders of stockpiling arms with help from Iraq. In response, the army launched a massive counterinsurgency campaign involving 80,000 troops. Rebel groups, led by tribal leaders like Nawab Khair Bakhsh Marri and Ataullah Mengal, operated from mountainous strongholds and conducted hit-and-run attacks. The conflict resulted in thousands of casualties and widespread displacement. It ended in 1977 after a military coup, but the grievances, which means political marginalisation, resource control, and ethnic suppression, remained unresolved.
2000s–Present: Resurgent Nationalism and Violent Resistance
A new wave of Baloch nationalism gained momentum in the early 2000s, catalysed by the military-led government’s centralisation policies and the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti in 2006. Armed groups like the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), Baloch Republican Army (BRA), and others began targeting Pakistani military convoys, Chinese projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and state infrastructure. They accused the Pakistani state of exploiting Balochistan’s vast natural resources, gas, minerals, and coastline, while neglecting local development and repressing dissent through enforced disappearances. Despite military crackdowns, the insurgency has endured, and political demands for autonomy or independence have intensified.
Criteria for Statehood and International Recognition
The quest for international recognition of a new state is governed by established legal and diplomatic frameworks. The 1933 Montevideo Convention outlines four primary criteria for statehood:
- Defined Territory: A state must possess a clearly demarcated geographical area.
- Permanent Population: There should be a stable and enduring population residing within the territory.
- Effective Government: The entity must have a functioning government capable of exercising authority over its territory and population.
- Capacity to Enter into Relations with Other States: The state should be able to engage in diplomatic and foreign relations.
While Balochistan meets some of these criteria, challenges remain, particularly concerning effective governance and international diplomatic engagement. Furthermore, the principle of territorial integrity, enshrined in the United Nations Charter, often complicates secessionist movements, as existing states are reluctant to endorse changes to established borders.
Prospects for Balochistan’s Independence
- Internal Cohesion: The Baloch nationalist movement is fragmented, with various factions differing in objectives and methods. A unified front is essential for advancing the cause on the international stage.
- International Support: Securing backing from influential states and international organisations is crucial. However, geopolitical considerations often deter countries from supporting secessionist movements, especially when it involves a strategic partner like Pakistan.
- Human Rights Advocacy: Highlighting human rights violations and garnering global sympathy can bolster the movement’s legitimacy. Documented abuses can serve as a basis for international intervention or mediation.
- Diplomatic Engagement: Active diplomatic efforts to engage with other nations, present the case for independence, and participate in international forums can enhance visibility and support.
