In the early hours of 13 June 2025, Tehran trembled.
A barrage of precision-guided missiles tore through the Iranian sky, leaving plumes of black smoke where once stood critical infrastructure tied to the Islamic Republic’s most guarded secrets. This was a decisive blow, a political earthquake of sorts. The world watched as Israel executed what is now being called Operation Rising Lion. It is one of the boldest and most comprehensive assaults ever launched by the Jewish state inside Iranian territory.
By dawn, multiple Iranian cities lay scarred. Key nuclear facilities at Natanz and Khondab had been targeted. An IRGC base in Khorramabad was reduced to twisted metal. More shocking still was the confirmed death of Major General Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, along with several other top-tier military and nuclear scientists.
The silence that followed was not calm. It was the kind of stillness that portends aftershocks.
Seeds of a Long War
This was not a sudden escalation. The conflict between Israel and Iran is decades old, stretching back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, when Iran began its steady transformation into a theocratic adversary of Israel. Over time, Tehran’s patronage of Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad created a menacing perimeter around Israel, one that Tel Aviv sought to dismantle through a mix of diplomacy, sabotage, and air power.
Yet in recent years, the tempo had shifted.
Iran’s nuclear programme, slowed at times by international pressure and covert sabotage, had accelerated since 2022. Israeli intelligence assessments warned that Iran had enriched uranium to levels nearing weapons-grade. Multiple backchannel warnings and diplomatic interventions failed to yield results. Then came the final provocation: satellite imagery, reportedly shared with key allies, showed preparations at Iranian sites that Israeli officials interpreted as a move toward final weaponisation.
This, Israeli officials concluded, was their red line.
Operation Rising Lion
The scale of the operation stunned even seasoned observers. Unlike previous Israeli strikes, which often focused narrowly on weapons depots in Syria or clandestine convoys, Operation Rising Lion struck deep into the Iranian mainland. Coordinated waves of F-35I Adir jets, likely supported by cyberwarfare units and satellite-guided munitions, pummelled targets over a two-hour window.
Among the casualties were both military assets and scientific and strategic minds. Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, a nuclear physicist previously on the UN watchlist, is believed to have been killed in his laboratory bunker. Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, another top scientific figure with links to Iran’s ballistic missile programme, also died in the strikes. The IRGC command centre in Tehran was directly hit, reportedly during a high-level security briefing.
The symbolic decapitation of Iran’s security elite was unmistakable. The message from Jerusalem was clear: no Iranian official, no matter how senior, is beyond reach.
A Calculated Gamble
The response from Washington was prompt, if cautious. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the United States was neither involved in nor informed of the operation. He warned Iran against targeting American assets in retaliation. This distancing, carefully calibrated, signalled two realities: first, that Israel had acted unilaterally, and second, that Washington feared escalation but would not restrain its closest ally.
Iran, meanwhile, sealed off its airspace, scrambled jets, and launched internal security crackdowns. Its official media initially denied any major damage, but satellite images and leaked hospital reports told a different story. The regime’s digital silence, coupled with sporadic blackouts, only deepened public suspicion and anger.
In Tehran, protests erupted, some condemning Israel, others turning their fury toward the regime for failing to anticipate such a strike.
Tehran’s Dilemma
For Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the calculus now teeters on a knife’s edge. A full-scale military retaliation risks triggering a wider regional war, one Iran is unlikely to win outright. Yet doing nothing would be seen as humiliating, particularly after the assassination of figures as prominent as Salami.
Already, reports suggest that Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria have been placed on high alert. Drone swarms over Israel’s northern front, while not confirmed, have increased. Cyberattacks against Israeli infrastructure were reported within 24 hours of the strike.
But the larger question remains: can Iran hit back in a way that satisfies its domestic hardliners without unleashing total war?
Fallout Across Borders
The regional consequences are not contained to Iran and Israel. Oil prices spiked over 7% within hours. Gulf states, long wary of Iran’s shadow, placed their militaries on standby. Saudi Arabia, itself no stranger to clandestine cooperation with Israel against Iran, remained publicly silent but increased air defence readiness.
Turkey and Russia condemned the strike; China issued a boilerplate call for “restraint.” India, reliant on energy imports from the region, is reportedly activating contingency plans to protect its diaspora and trade corridors.
Perhaps the most unpredictable outcome lies in Iraq. Iranian militias, integrated into parts of the Iraqi security apparatus, may choose to lash out against U.S. forces stationed there. If that occurs, the delicate balance Washington maintains in Baghdad could unravel quickly.
Echoes of Baghdad
There are eerie parallels here with the January 2020 U.S. drone strike that killed Qassem Soleimani. Then, too, the world feared open war. Iran responded with missile strikes on U.S. bases in Iraq but stopped short of further escalation.
This time, the stakes are higher. Soleimani was a battlefield commander; Hossein Salami was the symbolic face of Iran’s entire security doctrine. Losing him, along with nuclear scientists crucial to Iran’s deterrent ambition, constitutes a strategic wound.
How Iran chooses to cauterise that wound could define the region’s trajectory for years.
What Comes Next?
There are three plausible scenarios. It is very likely that the possible future is going to be a combination of the first and the third options. First to please its domestic fandom and third to continue its legacy.
Controlled Retaliation
Iran may opt for a symbolic but contained military response, likely via its proxies in Lebanon, Gaza, or Yemen. This would allow Tehran to project strength without dragging the region into a broader war.
Escalation Spiral
If Iran chooses to retaliate directly against Israeli territory or strategic assets, Israel will likely respond with overwhelming force. Given the success of Rising Lion, Tel Aviv now knows it can operate deep within Iran. A second wave of strikes would be devastating.
Strategic Pause
Iran may delay any overt response, choosing instead to rebuild and strike later. This could take the form of cyberwarfare, targeted assassinations, or maritime sabotage, tactics that offer deniability while inflicting pain.
A New Precedent
Whatever happens, the precedent has shifted. Israel has demonstrated a capability and will to strike the Iranian homeland at scale. It has done so with minimal international blowback and in apparent defiance of broader diplomatic efforts to stabilise the region.
This reshapes deterrence.
Iran, long confident in its strategic depth and proxy buffer zones, must now reassess its own vulnerability. Its generals can be targeted. Its facilities are within reach. Its nuclear clock may have been reset.
Final Thoughts
As dawn broke over Tel Aviv and Tehran on 13 June, the geopolitical axis of the Middle East tilted.
Israel has shown its claws. Iran is bloodied but not broken. The United States remains a silent observer, wary of being dragged in but unwilling to publicly criticise.
What remains to be seen is whether the rising lion roars again, or whether it has simply reminded the region that it never truly sleeps.
