As part of India’s efforts to deepen its presence in Europe, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit Cyprus en route to the G7 summit in Canada, with a stop in Croatia planned on his return journey. PM Modi’s visit to Cyprus might appear on the surface as routine diplomacy, but when viewed through the prism of regional power dynamics, it is a deliberate and calculated move on the broader geopolitical chessboard. With Ankara and Islamabad tightening their strategic embrace, New Delhi has begun to methodically counterbalance the emerging Turkiye–Pakistan bloc by strengthening ties with states that either feel threatened by or are antagonistic to Turkiye’s revisionist ambitions. Cyprus, historically at odds with Ankara and symbolically powerful within the European Union, fits squarely into this emerging Indian doctrine.
The Prime Minister and the Indian diplomats in general have also cosied up to Greece in the recent past, given Turkiye’s overt bonhomie with Pakistan. The approach of India to Cyprus is meant to stir the pot with the high command in Ankara.
The Ankara-Islamabad Nexus
Over the past decade, Türkiye under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has deliberately cultivated its role as a champion of Muslim solidarity, using this platform to back Pakistan’s narrative on Kashmir at various international forums. Erdoğan has repeatedly raised the Kashmir issue during his annual speeches at the United Nations General Assembly, most notably in 2019 and 2020, framing it as a global humanitarian concern and calling for multilateral intervention. These positions align closely with Islamabad’s line.
At the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), Türkiye has consistently supported Pakistan’s resolutions critical of India’s actions in Jammu & Kashmir, especially after the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. They have also reportedly lobbied behind the scenes to keep Kashmir on the OIC agenda. This is despite the fact that traditional Gulf powers have shown reluctance to it, given their trade relations with India.
Beyond diplomatic posturing, the Türkiye–Pakistan defence partnership has deepened manifold. The Turkish defence industry has supplied Pakistan with advanced military hardware, such as the T-129 ATAK helicopters (though delivery has been delayed due to U.S. export restrictions), and MILGEM-class stealth corvettes being built for the Pakistan Navy under a $1.5 billion deal. The two nations have also conducted joint naval drills like “Turgutreis” and expanded officer exchange and training programmes.
Türkiye has also voiced support for Pakistan’s positions at the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), reportedly lobbying in its favour to ease pressure during black and grey list reviews. This growing alignment has elevated Ankara as a key diplomatic ally for Pakistan, particularly at a time when traditional Gulf support has grown more transactional.
Through these moves, Türkiye is not just expressing ideological kinship but strategically positioning itself as Pakistan’s principal partner in the Muslim world, often in direct contrast to India’s interests, both regionally and globally.
Cyprus: A Thorn in Turkiye’s Side
Cyprus occupies a unique and contentious place in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly as a long-standing adversary of Türkiye. The island has been divided since 1974, when Turkish forces invaded in response to a Greece-backed coup in Nicosia. To this day, Türkiye is the only country that recognises the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, while the Republic of Cyprus, an EU member, maintains sovereignty over the entire island under international law. This division remains one of the most intractable geopolitical issues in Europe, and Cyprus uses its position in the EU to counter Türkiye’s interests actively.
Beyond the historical dispute, Cyprus has become central to the complex web of energy politics in the Eastern Mediterranean. The discovery of vast offshore natural gas reserves has intensified regional rivalries. Cyprus, alongside Greece, Israel, and Egypt, is part of the EastMed Gas Forum, an informal bloc seen as countering Türkiye’s maritime claims and energy ambitions. Türkiye, by contrast, has pushed its controversial “Blue Homeland” (Mavi Vatan) doctrine, asserting expansive claims over maritime zones in the Mediterranean, often clashing with Cypriot and Greek Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). Tensions have flared over Turkish drilling in disputed waters, with the EU and U.S. issuing condemnations.
In this context, India’s strengthening ties with Cyprus, especially during a time of heightened Ankara–Islamabad alignment, carry strategic weight. New Delhi is engaging a strategic European partner while sending a subtle yet unmistakable signal to Türkiye. India is showing Turkey that its adversarial moves in Kashmir and its pro-Pakistan stance have geopolitical costs. By entering the Eastern Mediterranean diplomatic theatre on Cyprus’ side, India aligns itself with a camp opposing Turkish expansionism. There is no direct confrontation, but there is certainly unmistakable clarity.
Modi’s EastMed Pivot
PM Modi’s visit must be understood as part of a broader eastward Mediterranean pivot. His previous trips to Egypt and Greece, both countries with tense histories with Turkiye, suggest a pattern. In July 2023, Modi became the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Greece in 40 years, just months after signing a new defence and security partnership with Egypt. These moves are part of an evolving architecture of Indo-Mediterranean diplomacy that aims to intersect with European energy security, Middle Eastern stability, and counterbalancing emerging Islamic alliances that seek to isolate India over Kashmir and other issues.
In Cyprus, India can tap into several layers of strategic value: access to Eastern Mediterranean energy corridors, coordination on EU policy matters, and naval diplomacy in a region increasingly eyed by China and Russia. Cyprus also offers a valuable perch to influence the EU’s policy on Kashmir indirectly, using its goodwill within the bloc to soften anti-India narratives.
Strategic Convergence: From Yerevan to Nicosia
Modi’s foreign policy has already shown an inclination to engage with countries that have their own historical grievances with Turkiye. India’s growing defence and cultural ties with Armenia, a country that Turkiye refuses to acknowledge over the Armenian genocide, are another data point. The India-Greece-Armenia-Cyprus axis is not formal yet, but the direction is clear. In each of these capitals, India finds partners who are weary of Ankara’s ambitions and open to a multipolar balance.
At the same time, India is careful not to alienate the broader Islamic world. Modi’s close ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia help ensure that this EastMed outreach is not seen as part of a civilizational conflict, but as calibrated statecraft rooted in mutual respect and strategic autonomy.
A Message Beyond Nicosia
By visiting Cyprus, PM Modi is sending a subtle but unmistakable message to Ankara: India’s foreign policy will no longer be defensive or reactive when it comes to international rhetoric on Kashmir or regional alignments against it. Instead, India will actively cultivate and operationalise relationships that constrain the diplomatic space of its adversaries.
This visit is a statement of India’s growing confidence on the world stage, that it is willing to step into contested regions not just for economic or diaspora-related reasons but as a deliberate act of geopolitical balancing.
The Quiet Encirclement
In the emerging multipolar world, alignment is less about formal treaties and more about patterns of engagement. Modi’s visit to Cyprus, when viewed alongside recent moves in Armenia, Greece, and Egypt, signals a quiet encirclement of Turkiye’s strategic sphere, anchored not in military posturing but in diplomatic and infrastructural integration.
As Turkiye and Pakistan double down on their ideological and strategic partnership, India’s Mediterranean manoeuvres show that New Delhi is not only watching but acting. And in doing so, it is reshaping the contours of Eurasian geopolitics, one calculated move at a time.
